CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z FRI 11/04 - 06Z SAT 12/04 2003
ISSUED: 10/04 13:34Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEDITERRANEAN

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS POLAND

SYNOPSIS

STRONG EUROPEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD. INTENSE SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN CENTRAL EUROPE NEGATIVELY TILTED. OVER THE ATLANTIC ... GEOPOTENTIAL WILL DEEPEN. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEDITERRANEAN WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIODE.

DISCUSSION

...SOUTHEASTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
CONVERGENCE LINE OVER GREECE WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHEREAS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN. ON FRIDAY MORNING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, BIG HAIL AND WITH THE AID OF OROGRAFIC SUPPORT PROBABLY A FEW TORNADOS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE, SUBSIDENCE SHOULD YIELD TO STABILIZATION.

...NORTHWESTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST OF ADVANCING SHORT WAVE WILL EFFECT IBERIAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. EAST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ... WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CVA WILL LEAD TO UVM OVER NORTHWESTERN MEDITERRANEAN. EFFECTED AIRMASS IS REATIVELY WARM AND CAPE SHOULD REACH AROUND 50 J/KG. AT LOWER LEVELS, CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ITALY. CONVECTION SHOULD POSSIBLY FORM IN THE RANGE OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND PROBABLY THUNDERY. ORGANISED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...POLAND...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CROSS POLAND. STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL EFFECT RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY FORM, AND PROBABLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST.

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